Tomorrow night, MTV continues its long-running tradition of pretending to care about music videos, while the rest of America will pretend to care about the VMAs altogether. Over the last few years, the VMAs have become a stage for Kanye West to do crazy things while Tokio Hotel inexplicably receives an award other than "Least Talented Band Ever." The "It" stars of today will be running amock onstage, while Chelsea Handler's "comedy" will be opening what is sure to be at the very least an interesting night in Los Angeles on Sunday. While the likes of Ke$ha, Justin Beiber, Drake, and Eminem are slated to perform, let's take a look at who (I think) will be taking home the slightly coveted Moonman this year, one award at a time:
(NOTE: Each of the links will take you to the page for the corresponding category, where you can view the videos that are up for each award.)
Best Female Video
Beyonce feat. Lady GaGa- "Videophone"
Katy Perry feat. Snoop Dogg- "California Gurls"
Ke$ha- "Tik Tok"
Lady GaGa- "Bad Romance"
Taylor Swift- "Fifiteen"
The Storylines: The award that sparked the Kanye West outburst last year pits T-Swift and Beyonce against each other again, but it's likely that neither will factor into who wins. 2010 has belonged to K-Perr, Ke$ha and GaGa, and it seems the VMAs will decide who the current Queen of Pop is. The three will also be battling for Best Pop Video, and it seems likely that whoever wins Best Female will double down and win Best Pop as well.
Who Wins?: While Lady GaGa is by far the premiere pop artist right now, there's a case that can be made for "Tik Tok." It broke the record for most plays on the radio in one week (which was held by "Bad Romance"), and Ke$ha has ruled the airwaves ever since. "California Gurls" is a great song, but it gets disqualified because, to me, the Best Female Video should be an all-girl artist or group, and Snoop Dogg's presence ruins it for Katy (that, and the video has literally nothing to do with California). It comes down to GaGa and Ke$ha, and I'll roll with Ke$ha any day.
Best Male Video
B.o.B. feat. Hayley Williams- "Airplanes"
Drake- "Find Your Love"
Eminem- "Not Afraid"
Jason Derulo- "In My Head"
Usher feat. Will. i. am.- "OMG"
The Storylines: Best Male features one of B.o.B.'s five nominations, and his takeover could be eminent by the end of the night. Based on the reason "California Gurls" won't win Best Female, Hayley Williams's appearance on "Airplanes" means Bobby Ray won't win all five. Jason Derulo burst onto the scene this year, but with legends like Usher and Eminem and new superstar Drake up against him, he'll have to wait another year. To me, Eminem's comeback is the story of 2010, and it will be solidified if he can take it home. Usher made a bit of a comeback/reinvention this year as well, while Drake's video for "Find Your Love" is one of the better ones I've seen in a while.
Who Wins?: Eminem, plain and simple. It's definitely going to come down to one of the year's comebacks (Em and Usher), and Eminem's has produced two consecutive #1 Billboard singles ("Love the Way You Lie" is the other), putting him at a huge advantage. This may be one of the more obvious winners of the night.
Best Dance Video
Enrique Iglesias feat. Pitbull- "I Like It"
Cascada- "Evacuate the Dance Floor"
David Guetta feat. Akon- "Sexy Chick"
Lady GaGa- "Bad Romance"
Usher feat. Will.i.am- "OMG"
The Storylines: Two of these songs were hits in 2009 ("Evacuate" and "Sexy Chick"), so they won't factor into the decision. Lady GaGa may in fact dominate the night, and "Bad Romance" is one of the year's bonifide hits. "OMG" and "I Like It" are straight-up dance songs, which may give them some sort of an advantage with the voters.
Who Wins?: Going for a bit of an upset here: Enrique. Here's why. The video contains the cast of MTV's hit show Jersey Shore, and that gives MTV a chance to cross-advertise, while making the egos of the show's cast even bigger. Plus, the video shows the biggest dance craze out there right now: fist-pumping. Sounds like Enrique will be beating up the beat, and his competition, on Sunday night.
Best Hip Hop Video
Drake feat. Lil Wayne, Eminem & Kanye West- "Forever"
B.o.B. feat. Hayley Williams- "Airplanes"
Eminem- "Not Afraid"
Jay-Z & Swizz Beatz- "On to the Next One"
Kid Cudi feat. MGMT & Ratatat- "Pursuit of Happiness"
The Storylines: While Kid Cudi is well respected in the game, he doesn't have the fanbase yet to upset the juggernauts in this field: at any given time, three of the nominees were considered (or still are) the best rapper alive (Jay, Em, and Weezy). "On to the Next One" wasn't as big of a commercial success to win, and "Airplanes" feels more like a pop song, so that leaves us with two. Either way, Eminem takes home the award. The real question is: will he want to share it?
Who Wins?: "Forever" was by far one of the best songs to come out in the last few years, and when you have that kind of star power on one song, there's no use denying its greatness. If only Weezy wasn't in jail now, we could have seen them all perform it again (as they did earlier this year for the Grammys). Nevertheless, this hip hop neo-classic deserves the award, and as long as Eminem takes another award home, he'll be happy.
Best Rock Video
Paramore- "Ignorance"
30 Seconds to Mars- "Kings & Queens"
Florencce & the Machine- "Dog Days are Over"
MGMT "Flash Delerium"
Muse- "Uprising"
The Storylines: This category features two indie newcomers (Florence, MGMT) who will likely be outdone by two of the more prominent rock bands of the year, Muse and Paramore. 30STM makes a strong case for the Moonman with "Kings & Queens," but they haven't had the Top 40 success (and therefore, not enough of a fanbase) to contend. It will come down to Muse and Paramore, even though each band's video was release in 2009.
Who Wins?: It'd be nice to see Muse get some more well-deserved respect, but with the smash single "The Only Exception" getting massive radio play right now, Paramore is as hot as they've been since "Misery Business" first hit the airwaves, and they won't be outdone.
Best Pop Video
B.o.B. feat. Bruno Mars- "Nothin' on You"
Beyonce feat. Lady GaGa- "Videophone"
Katy Perry feat. Snoop Dogg- "California Gurls"
Ke$ha- "Tik Tok"
Lady GaGa- "Bad Romance"
The Storylines: B.o.B.'s second song nominated may be in over its head on this one. Too many divas line the card in the Best Pop category, and the upset may be too much to ask for. This will be the second clash of the Titans between GaGa, K-Perr and Ke$ha, and as I said before, whoever wins Best Female will likely win this one as well.
Who Wins?: I can't go against my own proclamation, so I'll go with "Tik Tok." Lady GaGa may have to take a page from Britney Spears's book and go home empty-handed this year, with Ke$ha aiming to steal all the headlines. Katy Perry and Snoop have a better chance than you may think with this one, as "California Gurls" was the song of the summer, but it's been about 9 months since "Tik Tok" went to radio, and we're still hearing it on a regular basis.
Best Collaboration
B.o.B. feat. Hayley Williams- "Airplanes"
3OH!3 feat. Ke$ha- "My First Kiss"
Beyonce feat. Lady GaGa- "Videophone"
Jay-Z feat. Alicia Keys- "Empire State of Mind"
Lady GaGa feat. Beyonce- "Telephone"
The Storylines: If B.o.B. is going to win an award, it may be this one. However, the double-dose of Beyonce and Lady GaGa looks to be too much for anyone to overcome. 3OH!3 are in the middle of a sophomore slump, and "Empire State of Mind" is so old that it was performed last year. It'll come down to "Videophone" or "Telephone."
Who Wins?: "Telephone" is one of the funnier (and longer) videos of the year, and had its own controversy to boot. MTV reportedly refused to play it at first, but LG and B would not be denied, and the video was a Youtube smash. "Airplanes" could pull the upset, but it appears unlikely, given the amount of publicity "Telephone" continues to receive.
Best New Artist
Broken Bells- "The Ghost Inside"
Jason Derulo- "In My Head"
Justin Beiber feat. Ludacris- "Baby"
Ke$ha- "Tik Tok"
Nicki Minaj feat. Sean Garrett- "Massive Attack"
The Storylines: Despite Beiber Fever (which feels more like one of the 10 Plagues), it's hard to make a case for her when she employed the assistance of an already-established artist. Broken Bells are the underdog darlings, and they simply will not win. Nick Minaj and Jason Derulo are interesting choices, but "Massive Attack" didn't get much airplay and "In My Head" was completely forgotten once JD released "Ridin' Solo."
Who Wins?: If you didn't figure it out from the above paragraph, "Tik Tok" takes this one home as well. Ke$ha is one of the most interesting figures in pop music today, and fans seemingly can't get enough of her. She'll prove her worth on Sunday night, with her performance and (hopefully) a hat trick of awards.
Video of the Year
Lady GaGa- "Bad Romance"
Florence & the Machine- "Dog Days are Over"
30 Seconds to Mars- "Kings & Queens"
B.o.B. feat. Hayley Williams- "Airplanes"
Eminem- "Not Afraid"
Lady GaGa feat. Beyonce- "Telephone"
The Storylines: Florence & the Machine are slated to perform, which makes their nomination for Video of the Year a little more interesting. 30 Seconds to Mars are also an interesting choice, as they have one of the more devoted fanbases in modern rock. Eminem's return to glory would be cemented with a win here, but if I'm right about how the awards will go, he'll be satisfied with two. Lady GaGa's two entries are the biggest draw here, and she may do what Beyonce did with "Single Ladies" from last year: get a bunch of nominations, lose all of them, but take home the one that matters most: Video of the Year.
Who Wins?: I want to pick 30STM here, I really do. "Kings and Queens" is a visually stunning video, and they have the kind of fanbase who would band together and try to upend GaGa. But they won't. "Bad Romance" was all over the place this year. It's been the 2nd-most played song of the year (behind "Tik Tok," which wasn't nominated for Video of the Year"), and people look at it as the song that helped LG break through to superstardom. That status will be further established with a Video of the Year Moonman, and there's no reason to believe Lady GaGa will be denied.
If I'm right about this, the VMAs will produce quite a few storylines: the emergence of Ke$ha as the premiere pop princess, Eminem's return to untouchable status and the lack of appreciation for B.o.B.'s meteoric rise to the top of the rap game will be talked about for the next few days, and hopefully a few surprises and some great performances will give us something to look back on, at least for a few weeks. As far as the overall winners of the night? Nobody can really "win" at this award show until MTV makes a full effort to bring back the music video to its on-air schedule. Get a grip, MTV: The Hills isn't good TV.
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